By JEFFERSON CHOMA

The COP30 international climate conference was yet another victory for the fossil fuel industry, which comes as no surprise to those who follow these conferences. But this time, it was even more frustrating because, at the beginning of the conference, there were mentions of a supposed “roadmap” to gradually reduce the burning of fossil fuels in the coming years.

However, that “roadmap” turned out to be another fantasy in the face of enormous pressure from the fossil fuel industry. The COP ended without a plan to phase out fossil fuels and without funding targets for climate adaptation. In fact, even though fossil fuels are primarily responsible for global warming, explicit mention of the need to phase them out is always removed from the final COP documents.

Once again, the conference served as a showcase for climate- and environment-hostile capitalists. At least 1600 oil lobbyists circulated in the Blue Zone, forming a delegation larger than that of any individual country except Brazil, the host country of COP30. In addition to the mountain of greenwashing (a deceptive marketing practice whereby polluting companies present themselves as sustainable), COP30 was the scene of bizarre episodes, such as the presence of a Brazilian agribusiness space—the Agrizone—where landowners responsible for the destruction of Brazilian forests and the murder of socio-environmental activists gathered. This group even held a barbecue in the Agrizone, bringing together landowners implicated in the murder of missionary Dorothy Stang, who was assassinated in 2005 in Anapu, Pará, for having spoken out on behalf of the rural poor and against the agribusinesses destroying the forest.

Mobilizations expose contradictions of the Lula government

Brazil is trying to present itself as a leader in the construction of a “plan” for energy transition. Lula gave pretty speeches about the need to reduce fossil fuels and about the peoples of the Amazon, but he was unable to hide the enormous contradiction of his political practice. In addition to liberalizing oil exploitation in the Amazon weeks before COP30, the government has been preparing to unleash climate bombs that could lead to the collapse of the world’s largest rainforest, such as the paving of the BR-319 highway and the creation of waterways on Amazonian rivers (by presidential decree and without consulting the traditional communities affected, as required by law) to facilitate the transport of soybeans, corn, and iron extracted in the region.

That is why COP30 was marked by various protests, led mainly by Indigenous peoples, who blocked diplomatic delegations’ access to the Blue Zone, occupied the venue on the first day of the conference, participated in marches, and made indignant statements against the Lula government’s policies, demanding the immediate demarcation of their territories.

The high point of the popular protests was the Global Climate March, one of the main events of the People’s Summit, a parallel event to the COP, which brought together between 50,000 and 70,000 people on Nov. 15—including indigenous peoples, activists, and social movements from around the world—who did not spare their criticism of capitalism and the Brazilian government.

The PSTU [Unified Socialist Workers Party] was present at the march, as part of the CSP-Conlutas contingent, with approximately 200 activists, including quilombolas, Indigenous people, trade unionists, students, and construction workers from Belém.

Faced with the climate of unrest, the Lula government mobilized Environment Minister Marina Silva (REDE), Indigenous Peoples Minister Sônia Guajajara (PSOL), and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), now Minister of the General Secretariat, to try to contain the mobilization. Boulos proposed a “prior consultation” after the decree paving the way for the creation of the waterways had already been issued. Instead of advocating for its immediate revocation, Boulos presented a measure with no real effect, seen by Indigenous peoples as a maneuver to demobilize resistance and facilitate agribusiness projects. Indigenous peoples are demanding the revocation of the decree, respect for the right to consultation, and an end to projects that threaten their territories.

“Green capitalism” is a farce

In addition to the greenwashing, COP was dominated by proposals for so-called “green capitalism,” such as carbon credits, which are financial assets traded on stock exchanges and allow polluters to emit greenhouse gases at a lower cost than fines and penalties. It is like a food voucher that allows capitalists to buy the right to continue polluting and deforesting. On the other hand, the carbon credit market harms traditional and Indigenous communities through fraud, violations of territorial rights, and limitations on their subsistence activities.

Another initiative is the funds for the protection of rainforests, heavily promoted by the Lula and Marina Silva governments. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) promises to protect forests, but prioritizes financial market investors. According to a study by the Arayara Institute, more than 95% of the TFFF’s annual return is allocated to purposes other than conservation, instead going straight to the financial system.

“Nature becomes collateral; the peoples of the forest, residual beneficiaries. This is not compatible with the discourse of climate justice. (…) Without safeguards, the fund can finance sectors that destroy the Amazon and weaken mechanisms such as the Amazon Fund,” the Institute critically assesses.

The world is moving towards climate barbarism

While COPs are spaces for major negotiations between fossil fuel and extractive capitalism, a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) reinforces the accelerated progress of the climate crisis and the imminent failure of the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. According to the document, even if all the commitments currently made by countries are fully met, the global average temperature is set to rise by between 2.5°C and 2.9°C by the end of the century, a level considered extremely dangerous by scientists.

This would mean crossing several points of no return, making global warming uncontrollable. A world above 2°C would be ravaged by pandemics, the destruction of coastal cities, the collapse of forests, and vast continental areas left uninhabitable by humans due to extreme heat. One of those regions would be Belém, the host city of COP30. Scientific projections indicate that the city could become uninhabitable due to extreme heat as early as 2070 if the 2°C barrier is exceeded.

The projections are even more alarming when the current trajectory of emissions is considered. According to UNEP, the chances of limiting warming to 1.5°C are already nil, and the probability of keeping it below 2°C falls to just 8% if the world continues at the current pace of mitigation.

Even if the climate targets offered by countries so far are fully adopted, the outlook is not encouraging: the chances of stabilizing warming at 2°C by 2050 rise to only 25%, a stark warning about the inadequacy of the promises and the urgency of more profound and immediate action.

The report reinforces the understanding that the window to avoid the worst-case scenarios of climate collapse is rapidly closing, while governments remain far from taking the necessary measures and plan to explore even more oil over the next decade.

In practice, the leaders of imperialism and big capitalists have already made their decision: they will not prevent climate catastrophe, even if it costs the murder and genocide of a large part of humanity. Only the overcoming of capitalism and social control of production can prevent the worst.

Photo: Indigenous people in the Blue Zone of the COP30 conference.