By CARLOS SAPIR

This week, Israel and Hamas agreed to a four-day truce in exchange for the release of 50 captives held by Hamas. While this is only a temporary pause in Israel’s genocidal assault against Gaza, it is worth underlining both the role of mass protests in securing this reprieve, and to analyze the prospect of the war’s continuation.

Mass protests force Biden and Bibi to halt the assault

The effect of mass protests on the Biden administration’s policy in regard to the invasion of Gaza is crystal clear. At the outset of the Israeli invasion, Biden, alongside other imperialist leaders, expressed unconditional support for “Israel’s right to self-defense” and transferred Navy carrier groups to the Eastern Mediterranean to support Israel’s military efforts. Biden’s rhetoric changed, however, following the massive Nov. 4 day of action for Palestine, which brought over 100,000 people to Washington, D.C., on the heels of massive protests in major cities around the world. While ceasefire negotiations mediated by Qatar were already underway at the time, it is probable that the mass demonstrations pushed the U.S. to amend its position and to call for restraint and a prisoner swap.

Support for a ceasefire to facilitate the release of prisoners has been a rallying cry of protests inside Israel as well. While these protests, much like the anti-judicial-reform protests of the past year, have clung to Zionist rhetoric, symbolism, and general support for the continuation of the state of Israel, their core demands have focused solely on bringing kidnapped Israelis home, not on “eliminating Hamas” or otherwise prosecuting the war to its conclusion.

As the Israeli public knows quite well from the long history of its war against Palestinians, the only path that guarantees that captives will be returned alive is that of a full ceasefire and an “all-for-all” prisoner swap. The demands of the Israeli demonstrators are at odds with the Israeli government’s strategy, which is to deepen the war and destroy Hamas. The continued invasion threatens to kill the hostages, and Hamas has already reported that 50 died amidst Israel’s bombing campaign.

When considering Israeli protests, it is also important to note the heavy-handed repression that they face at this moment, with police denying permits, breaking up protests, and arresting organizers for speaking out against the war.

Current ceasefire is inadequate

While it is important to note the role that mass protests have had in forcing the U.S. and Israeli governments to change course, it must also be emphasized that the current ceasefire falls far short of being adequate for Palestinians. The ceasefire does nothing to stop Israeli attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank, to end the siege of Gaza, or to change the status quo throughout Palestine. Just a day before the ceasefire was due to go into effect, Israel undertook one of its most destructive bombings yet, killing an estimated 200 Palestinians. The only concession made in this deal was that Israel would halt its bombing and the advance of its soldiers into Gaza for a planned four days.

As socialists fighting for the full liberation of Palestine, we continue to call for an immediate, unilateral end to both the Israeli invasion of Gaza and to the Israeli occupation of all of Palestine, and for the formation of a unitary, democratic, secular state in Palestine. To this end, we are for the full military defeat of the forces of the Israeli state and offer our unconditional support to the Palestinian resistance in this struggle.

Netanyahu on a tightrope; Israel in a quagmire

While the situation remains dire for Palestinians, who now live in the surreal space of a litigated four-day reprieve from genocidal warfare, the war against Gaza has also brought Israel to a political breaking point. Already massively unpopular and having been confronted with protests calling for his resignation before October, Netanyahu now faces polls in which nearly three-quarters of Israelis call for his ouster. Netanyahu’s hostility to ceasefire proposals is in part an act of self-preservation; the only thing keeping him in power right now is momentum, tied to the widespread belief that changing a government would be harmful to Israel’s war effort.

A pause in the fighting, even temporarily, could potentially give Israelis the breathing room needed to demand that Netanyahu step down. While there is no guarantee that the next Zionist government would be any better for Palestinians, it is nevertheless clear that Netanyahu’s bloodthirsty attacks on Gaza have more to do with furthering his own political career than any military reality on the ground.

By declaring that Israel’s goal in this war is the complete eradication of Hamas, Israel has set for itself a goal that it has no guarantee of accomplishing. Israel has invaded Gaza twice, in 2008-09 and in 2014, since the beginning of its siege against the territory in 2006. Both times, Israel reduced much of Gaza to rubble, marched its troops across the territory, and ultimately withdrew after facing modest casualties. Both times, Hamas remained intact afterward.

It is clear that Hamas’s base of operations and its logistical lifeline is its much-vaunted subterranean tunnel network. Israel obviously lacks the ability to disable these tunnels through bombing (or they would have done so already), which means that its only tactical options are to either seize the tunnels outright or to attempt to dig them out while holding ground inside Gaza—both of which mean fighting in some of the most unfavorable conditions imaginable. Either way, Israel would be committing itself to a far more ambitious military campaign than anything it has previously attempted in Gaza, while using an Israeli military that appears weaker than ever before in the wake of the Oct. 7 assault, and while the people of Gaza are better-prepared and more motivated to resist. Netanyahu may have invaded Gaza to try to save his career, but in doing so he has committed Israel to its own Vietnam.

Tasks for socialists

As the timer on the ceasefire counts down and Gaza prepares to return to war, it is our duty as anti-imperialists to continue mobilizing people against the genocide that Israel is trying to commit. By passing resolutions in our unions in favor of BDS and the Palestinian struggle more broadly, we can begin to exert economic pressure to end apartheid in Palestine. By organizing mass demonstrations, we can wake up more and more layers of people to oppose the inhumanity facing Palestinians, forcing even imperialist governments to recalculate their support for apartheid. Finally, this is also a moment to stand up for civil liberties, to defend people’s right to speak out on Palestine and protect our freedom to political speech against those who would repress us.

The current, paltry “ceasefire” is a mere sliver of what we can win if we continue to agitate and organize for the liberation of Palestine. We have a world to win, and we are only getting started.

• End all U.S. aid to Israel!
• Boycott, Divest, and Sanction Israeli apartheid!
• Lift the siege of Gaza!
• Self-determination for the Palestinian people!
• Stop the confiscation of Palestinian land! End all settlement building!
• Support the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their homeland!
• For a free, democratic, secular Palestine with equal rights for all!
• For a socialist federation of the Middle East!

Photo: Protesters in Ramallah, West Bank, demonstrate for the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. (AFP / Getty Images)