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By INTERNATIONAL SECRETARIAT of the INTERNATIONAL WORKERS LEAGUE -FOURTH INTERNATIONAL

A truce imposed by Trump has interrupted the United States and Israeli war against Iran. It is time to assess the situation and its ramifications.

The truce was imposed after the United States heavily bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities with 125 aircraft, dropping the world’s largest non-nuclear bombs. As part of a brutal attack, planned well in advance, Israel assassinated a significant part of Iran’s military leadership, carried out intense daily air strikes against nuclear facilities, destroyed much of Iran’s air defense system and part of its defensive and offensive missiles, and attacked major cities, demolishing homes, infrastructure, and hospitals.

Iran responded by launching some 650 missiles at Israel, reaching its territory for the first time in various cities, without causing significant military losses, but partially overcoming the Zionist air defense. It was the second time (the first being Oct. 7 with the Hamas attack) that Israel’s “invincible” defenses have been defeated in this period.

An imperialist-Zionist offensive… but Iran has not been defeated

The truce was imposed in a situation where the imperialists and Zionists were on the offensive and Iran on the defensive. U.S. imperialism and the Israeli government have been strengthened by having carried out a brutal attack, suffering few losses, and a signing truce that has prevented the political consequences of the attrition of a longer war from affecting Trump and Netanyahu.

European imperialists generally supported the U.S. attack on Iran, or at most limited itself to proposing diplomatic solutions.

But Iran has not been defeated. Neither the United States nor Israel succeeded in imposing their two objectives: to destroy Iran’s nuclear potential and to overthrow the Ayatollah regime. And Iran managed to hit Israeli territory with its missiles, in a much more intense manner than in the attacks of April 2024.

The conflict is far from resolved. There may be new attacks or developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a return to the Abraham Accords and the economic and political relations between Arab countries and Israel, and a new plan for Gaza. It remains to be seen to what extent Iran will be able to rearm itself. This is a complex process, without a predetermined result.

But it can already be said that this war has exacerbated the existing economic, political, and military polarization in the world, will deepen the crisis of the world order, and will tend to radicalize the class struggle.

Israel’s attack on Iran is an extended continuation of its offensive against Gaza.

Netanyahu broke the truce agreement in Gaza last March, reoccupied the Philadelphi and Netzarin corridors, and advanced with his plan to exterminate and expel the Palestinians from Gaza, destroying house by house and decreeing the evacuation of entire regions, particularly in the north.

So far, there are no signs that he will be able to carry out Trump’s plan to expel the Palestinians from Gaza, due to enormous international opposition and opposition among the countries of the region. But Netanyahu may try to place Zionist settlements within the territory of Gaza.

Alongside this, the largest attack on the West Bank in decades is unfolding, with the expulsion of 40,000 Palestinians and the occupation and destruction of historical refugee camps, as part of a plan to annex the region to Israel.

The Israeli genocide has killed at least 60,000 Palestinians (some estimates put the figure at 100,000), destroyed almost all infrastructure and more than 90% of homes. Israel is now using hunger as a weapon of war, with food distribution within Gaza under its military control. Nearly 600 Palestinians have been killed in food distribution lines, murdered by Israeli soldiers.

Despite this, it cannot declare victory. It has failed to destroy Hamas or rescue the hostages and is embroiled in a grueling war with no end in sight. Hamas not only remains intact, but has recruited more militants.

The Israeli offensive led to historic international isolation for Zionism. Never in history has there been such repudiation of Israel in the world. These are contradictory parts of the same whole: the Israeli genocidal offensive and its isolation from the masses around the world.

4- Zionism won a military victory against Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and many of its leaders, as well as destroying between 70 and 80% of its arsenal. Since then, a new Lebanese government, aligned with US imperialism, is rebuilding the state, imposing its control over the country and reducing Hezbollah’s influence.

This organization, while maintaining its political base, is transforming itself into a regime party, more suited to elections and less militarily structured. Since the Israeli attack, there have been virtually no major attacks by Hezbollah against Israel, which was even more astounding during the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran. Hezbollah simply did not react militarily to imperialism’s attack on Iran.

The overthrow of Assad in Syria was a victory for the mass movement against a hated dictatorship and accomplice of Israel. However, the evolution of these processes is strongly conditioned by their leadership. The Al-Sharaa government seeks to rebuild the Syrian state, recomposing a Bonapartist regime in alliance with U.S. imperialism and regional powers such as Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, without confronting Israel.

Although the Syrian process has the potential to stimulate new processes of struggle in the region, Assad’s fall weakened Iran’s support in the region. This weakening of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” together with the internal political crisis in Israel caused by the wear and tear of a year and nine months of continuous war, were the basis for Israel’s attack on Iran.

Israel’s internal situation and its relationship to the attack

Israel is an enclave of imperialism, a nuclear power financed and armed by the US. But it is undergoing important processes of transformation.

As a result of its constant military confrontations, there is an exodus of sectors of the liberal middle class and an influx of settlers—mostly of far-right or directly fascist ideology—who occupy the West Bank settlements. This is leading to a broadening and radicalization of support for Zionist genocide among its base.

On the other hand, there is a significant internal political crisis caused by fatigue after almost two years of war in Gaza, allegations of corruption and other charges against Netanyahu.

There have been significant mass mobilizations against Netanyahu by a sector of the population dissatisfied with the continuation of the war and the failure to return the hostages. This has led to political polarization against the other sector of the extreme right, Netanyahu’s base, which supports the continuation of the war at any cost.

The far-right government is facing multiple crises. One of them has to do with ultra-Orthodox Jews who are exempt from compulsory military service despite living in a militarized society during wartime. This exemption was challenged by the courts, but the parties that represent the ultra-Orthodox are threatening to leave the Netanyahu government if it is removed, which could also lead to its downfall. Its electoral prestige was at an all-time low before the war against Iran. The attack on Iran was an attempt to escape its internal crisis, and it has succeeded.

Netanyahu enjoyed popular support, even with a significant portion of the Israeli population living in bunkers for more than a week. This prestige was enhanced by the brutal U.S. attack. Polls indicate that there was 83% support for the attacks.

This can be explained by the country’s enclave character, built on the exploitation and oppression of the Palestinians. In addition, the Israeli people have been convinced for decades of the “nuclear threat from Iran.” So the propaganda of “destroying Iran’s nuclear potential” spread by Netanyahu has gained enormous support. The result is a political and military strengthening of Netanyahu, who has regained his popularity, albeit temporarily.

The permanent Zionist counterrevolution

The other motive for the attack on Iran is the Greater Israel project, expanding its borders and consolidating broader imperialist military control across the Middle East.

Israel has never before launched a similar attack against Iran. It is thus resuming, to a greater extent, its role as an imperialist enclave and enforcer in the Middle East, reinforcing its presence in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza and threatening the entire Middle East with its air power. This project may or may not reach its full conclusion in the midst of the crisis of the world order and the turbulent situation in the region.

Netanyahu’s logic is that of a permanent counterrevolution, a continuous war to try to establish regional military hegemony that does not translate into stabilization in the region. He is unable to defeat his enemies, he is widening social and political polarization, increasing the potential for a new Arab Spring, and tending to generate more and more internal attrition in Israel.

Once again, there is a huge contradiction between Israel’s increased military weight and the widening of internal political contradictions throughout the region.

Now, Netanyahu is refocusing his offensive on Gaza, continuing the genocide. This will once again lead to increased international erosion and pro-Palestinian mobilizations around the world, although there is a possibility of resuming negotiations with Saudi Arabia to reach an agreement on Gaza.

The Iranian dictatorship

The Iranian regime is a bourgeois dictatorship in the form of a theocratic regime. In Iran, a revolution overthrew the monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a direct ally of U.S. imperialism, in 1979.

With the complicity and betrayal of the Iranian Communist Party (particularly its Tudeh faction), which had influence among the working class, the Shiite ayatollahs, representing a layer of local bourgeoisie, managed to destroy the organs of dual power and defeat the revolution.

From then on, this bourgeoisie grew by controlling the state apparatus and established a bourgeois dictatorship, harshly repressing strikes and the struggle of women, who were severely oppressed by the Islamic theocracy.

Women were at the forefront of the struggle against the theocratic dictatorship, in a movement rooted in the social conditions of the country, in teachers’ strikes, in Kurdish mobilizations, and in urban youth protests. The slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom” appeared on the streets of Iran with enormous force in 2022.

The Iranian dictatorship uses forces such as the Revolutionary Guard and militias such as the Basij (a paramilitary force directly linked to the Revolutionary Guard) to repress street demonstrations, strikes, and the women’s struggle.

At the regional level, the Ayatollah regime has maintained independence from U.S. imperialism since its inception, but later relied on Russian and Chinese imperialism.

It is the center of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” against Israeli domination, which included Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq, the Assad regime, and the Houthis in Yemen, but it has not confronted Israel throughout the genocide in Gaza, reacting only to its direct attacks against Iran itself.

The Iranian theocratic regime played a directly counterrevolutionary role in supporting the Assad government during the mass uprising against the Syrian dictatorship.

Despite the internal erosion of the Iranian regime, as a by-product of the economic crisis, mass poverty, and oppression of women, the US and Israeli attack appears to have provoked a reaction of national unity, although the Islamic Republic also took advantage of the war to imprison 700 innocent opposition activists who were not pro-imperialist. But our sense that the feeling of national unity against the military aggression suffered predominates.

Despite being weakened by the attacks, Iran maintains its nuclear capacity and emerges from this war with a regime strengthened by having faced much more powerful enemies in military terms without surrendering and having hit Israeli territory with its missiles.

We support the defense of Iran, independent of the dictatorship of the ayatollahs

In this period of war, we are on the side of Iran against its imperialist attackers, without giving the slightest political support to the bourgeois dictatorship of the ayatollahs, which represses the working people, brutally oppresses women and youth, and uses the confrontation with imperialism to justify its own internal dictatorship. We defend the most complete political independence from the Iranian regime.

We reject the false dichotomy between imperialism and the Iranian theocracy that is the position of Stalinist parties and their political campism.

The argument long used by imperialist propaganda for the attack that “Iran cannot have nuclear weapons” is a cynical expression of imperialist arrogance. The United States, the imperialist country with the largest nuclear arsenal, allied with Israel (another nuclear power), demands exclusivity in its power to destroy.

We are against all nuclear weapons because they can render the planet uninhabitable and destroy humanity. Even more so in the current situation of environmental crisis. And we do not want these weapons in the hands of bourgeois governments, which means under the control of the world bourgeoisie.

But at the same time, the defense of their exclusive right to possess nuclear weapons is a brutal expression of imperialist dominion. We defend Iran’s right to defend itself, including by possessing those same nuclear weapons.

We defend the broadest freedom for trade unions and workers’ organizations in Iran to fight against imperialist aggression, as well as against dictatorship.

The struggle against Israeli-U.S. aggression must serve to advance the independent organization of the Iranian, Palestinian, Lebanese, and world working class, as part of a strategy of permanent revolution and break with all capitalist and fundamentalist projects.

The important role of Trump

U.S. imperialism remains hegemonic, but Trump recognizes its current decline and is moving amid the crisis of the world order to rebuild US hegemony to previous levels.

He is seeking actions that reduce U.S. military presence and spending where it is not in his interest, while at the same time rebuilding its hegemony.

Trump attempted an agreement with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, imposing a colonial agreement on Zelensky and leaving European imperialism to bear the costs of military support for Ukraine. So far, this has not worked because the war in Ukraine continues. In the war against Iran, it was different. Trump and Netanyahu grew stronger together.

U.S. imperialism and the Israeli government acted in unison throughout. This does not mean that there are no political differences or divergent interests between these two far-right governments, as demonstrated by Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East, with the suspension of sanctions against the new Syrian government and the agreement with the Houthis.

But in that war, they acted together. From Israel’s attack plan, drawn up well in advance with US intelligence, to the timing of the attack, to Israeli defense infrastructure, the supply of weapons, and the provision of political support.

There was an initial moment of diplomacy, in which Trump tried to impose an agreement on Iran that would prevent its nuclear development. Faced with the stalemate in the negotiations, he helped prepare and support Israel’s brutal attack on Iran and, in the face of Iranian resistance, he doubled down on the military option with a direct U.S. attack, even more brutal than the Israeli one.

Despite his military superiority, Trump did not want to go ahead with the war, for several reasons. First, because of the serious political consequences that this would entail, with mobilizations already planned around the world. Trump has already faced two huge mobilizations against him internally: on April 5 and the No Kings demonstrations in June. There is a growing political crisis in the country over attacks on immigrants, which could be linked to the pro-Palestinian demonstrations.

Beyond that, there is the crisis within his Republican base, due to the contradiction between his military actions versus his “America First” plan and his commitment not to get involved in new wars. There was also concern about protecting Israel in a situation that promised to become more complicated if the war continued.

It therefore seems that his plan is for Israel to be, more than ever, his political and military representative in the region, without direct U.S. military involvement, which would be in line with Netanyahu’s expansionist plan in the Middle East. This does not change U.S. imperialist strategy and hegemony in the region or its military presence, but it would give Zionism a more important role.

With his temporary strengthening, Trump managed to impose an increase in the military budget at the NATO summit, with the almost complete submission of European imperialism.

The inaction of Russian and Chinese imperialism

The war of the United States and Israel against Iran has also shown how Chinese and Russian imperialism are reacting.

It is widely known that China has been Iran’s main economic partner since 2007, being its most important buyer of oil and helping the country escape the economic blockade imposed by US imperialism.

It is also well known that Russian imperialism is Iran’s main arms supplier, and that Iran helped Russian imperialism in the invasion of Ukraine with a massive supply of drones until Russia began to manufacture them.

For this reason, there were expectations in progressive sectors around the world that China and Russia would support Iran. However, the imperialist character of these countries and their specific characteristics in the current phase of the crisis of the world order pointed to passivity. Both Russia and China limited themselves to diplomatic condemnation of Israel, without taking any concrete action in support of Iran.

China is an emerging imperialist power with extensive interests in the Middle East. It is not only Iran’s main trading partner, but also Israel’s, with trade far exceeding even that of the United States. It is also the main trading partner of Saudi Arabia and several other countries in the region. Its interest is in the stability of the region, that is, counterrevolutionary stability.

Chinese imperialism has done nothing concrete in relation to Palestine, nothing concrete in relation to Iran. Putin is focused on his own war in Ukraine. He has no interest or conditions to get involved in another conflict in the Middle East.

This had already been expressed in his inaction in the face of Assad’s fall in Syria. And now it has become even clearer with his lack of response to the U.S. bombing of Iran. Putin not only prioritizes his war against Ukraine, but also his relations with Trump in order to win that war. In the words of one activist: “Putin traded Iran for Ukraine.”

Russia and China share the same position as other imperialist countries in opposing Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. After the U.S. and Israeli military aggression, Putin is pressuring Iran not to leave the International Atomic Energy Agency and to commit to not developing nuclear weapons.

The crisis of the world order created by the rise of Chinese and Russian imperialism is going through increasingly turbulent processes. And it is still in the early stages of shaping a new world order. Both defend their political and economic interests around the world, but they have priority areas of military conflict, with Russia in Ukraine (and parts of Africa) and China with Taiwan.

War further polarizes the class struggle internationally

It is almost certain that, even with the truce, the current polarization of the class struggle at the global level will increase and lead to a sharpening of the class struggle.

Let’s look at the dynamics in the Middle East. The most independent reports—and the US intelligence services themselves—refute Trump’s claims that “they have destroyed Iran’s nuclear potential.” Nor is the reality as portrayed by the Iranian regime, which claims that there has been virtually no damage. According to the most reliable independent information, Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed, but not destroyed.

The other objective, to overthrow the regime, has not advanced at all. On the contrary, the effect achieved has been to generate a feeling of national unity around the Ayatollahs’ regime, due to imperialist aggression. The truce allows Iran to savor a draw which, given US and Israeli military superiority, is a significant achievement.

Israel failed to defeat Hamas or rescue the hostages in Gaza. Nor did it impose its objectives on Iran. Its military offensive and genocide in Gaza have provoked a degree of mass repudiation of Zionism unprecedented in history. An interesting poll on the subject indicates this:

Another indication was the result in the Democratic Party primaries for the New York elections, in which Zohran Mamdani, a pro-Palestinian immigrant, defeated the party establishment candidate Andrew Cuomo. This has never happened in the U.S., especially in a city as important as New York.

Pro-Palestinian mobilizations had gained momentum in recent weeks, with the return of mass demonstrations in several European countries. Added to this was the impact of the detention and hijacking of the Freedom Flotilla and the repression that prevented the Global March on Gaza, in which there was significant participation by militants Fabio Bosco and Herbert Claros of the PSTU and the IWL. As soon as news of the attack broke, acts of condemnation began to be organized around the world. The truce halted these mobilizations, but the tendency for anti-Zionist mobilizations to expand remains, further polarizing the global situation.

It is possible to defeat imperialism and Zionism

It is possible to defeat the alliance of imperialism with the genocidal Zionism of Israel if the military resistance in Palestine and Iran is combined with mobilizations around the world. Imperialist military superiority has already been proven on other occasions to be defeatable, as in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Pro-Palestinian mobilizations in the United States and other imperialist countries can be combined with national issues (such as the struggle in defense of immigrants in the United States) and play a central role in this process.

The hatred of Israel among the Arab masses can turn against regimes that support the United States and Israel, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, in a new Arab Spring. Only in this way can the enormous political support of the Arab masses for the Palestinians be transformed into effective military support for the struggle in Gaza, in a united front of the masses of these countries against Zionist genocide.

The enormous anger accumulated in the West Bank and in the 1948 territories could generate a third intifada that would shake the Palestinian territories and join the struggles in Gaza.

• For the defeat of U.S. imperialism and Israel!

• For the victory of Iran against the U.S. and Zionist attack!

• For the victory of Palestine against Zionist genocide! For the defeat of Israel!

• Boycott and break all economic and political relations with Israel!

• For a new Arab Spring that will bring down the regimes in the region that are subjugated to imperialism, such as Egypt and Jordan, and make military support for the Palestinian resistance possible!

• No political confidence in the regime of the ayatollahs! All our support for the struggles of workers and women against the Iranian bourgeois dictatorship! In defense of democratic freedoms within Iran!

• For the unity of the national liberation struggles of Palestine, Ukraine, and Iran against the Zionists and imperialists.

• For the destruction of the State of Israel! Free Palestine, from the river to the sea!

A call to the streets in defense of Iran and Palestine! 

By INTERNATIONAL SECRETARIAT of the INTERNATIONAL WORKERS LEAGUE

The United States has directly attacked Iran, thus joining the Israeli offensive against that country. They used the most advanced aircraft in the world and the largest non-nuclear bombs known to attack a semi-colonial country. The argument used—“Iran cannot have nuclear weapons”—is the most cynical expression of imperialist arrogance. This is said by the imperialist country that possesses the most nuclear weapons, allied with another nuclear power, Israel: they demand exclusivity in their power of destruction.

This is a brutal imperialist military offensive that deserves denunciation from activists around the world. This is not just another war. It is the continuation and expansion of the Zionist genocide in Gaza. It is an attempt to impose military terror on the peoples of the world. Revolutionary socialists around the world have a duty to take the side of Iran in this war, because it is an attack by the most powerful imperialist country in the world against a semi-colonial country. The outcome of this war will influence the processes of class struggle around the world. If imperialism wins, it will legitimize its military intervention on a global scale. If it loses, the popular struggles against exploitation will be strengthened internationally.

The outcome continues to hang in the balance. It will not depend solely on imperialist military superiority. A new wave of mobilizations is beginning around the world that could be much greater than those that have existed until now, reflecting the enormous social and political polarization that this U.S. military intervention will generate.

This does not mean, on our part, any political support for the regime of the Iranian ayatollahs, a dictatorship at the service of the bourgeoisie, built around the state that emerged from the Iranian revolution of 1979 and which crushed that revolution. We maintain the most complete political independence from the Iranian regime. The United States and Israel have two clear military and political objectives: to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity and to overthrow the regime of the ayatollahs in order to impose a new government linked to the family of the former Shah Reza Pahlevi, who was deposed by the 1979 revolution.

Will they succeed in imposing these objectives? At this point, no one can predict the outcome of this conflict. So far, even with all its military superiority and the massacre of 60,000 Palestinians, Israel has not achieved its stated objectives in Gaza: the destruction of Hamas and the rescue of the hostages. The outcome of this conflict is not predetermined. Imperialism has already been defeated in the past in Vietnam, as well as in Iraq and Afghanistan, and it can be defeated again. Victory will depend on the continuity of the Palestinian and Iranian resistance and the magnitude of the mobilizations against imperialism throughout the world.

Chinese and Russian imperialism are limiting themselves to diplomatic statements against U.S. military intervention. Despite their alliances with the Iranian regime, they are not prepared to confront U.S. imperialism militarily. Putin cynically trades Iran for Ukraine, prioritizing his agreement with Trump on Ukraine over his alliance with Iran. The European imperialist governments came out in defense of the U.S. attack or limited themselves to defending a diplomatic solution. There is no such thing as “progressive” imperialism. We join the calls already echoing around the world for mobilizations in the coming days against the counterrevolutionary alliance of the U.S. with Israel against Iran.

We will see the response of the world’s masses to this brutal aggression. It is possible to defeat imperialism if mobilizations like those against the Vietnam War shake the U.S. It would require mass mobilizations to advance in the European imperialist countries, combined with direct actions and strikes wherever possible. It is essential to revive the Arab Spring to overthrow the Arab governments and regimes allied with the U.S. and Israel, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Only then can the enormous political support of the Arab masses for the Palestinian cause be transformed into effective military support for the struggle in Gaza. A new intifada must shake the Palestinian territories to join the struggle in Gaza.

For the defeat of U.S. and Israeli imperialism! For the victory of Iran and Palestine! Boycott and break all economic and political ties with Israel! No political confidence in the regime of the ayatollahs! For the destruction of the State of Israel! Free Palestine, from the river to the sea!