Jordanian monarchy managed to govern the intensity of the secondary contradiction which existed within the regime itself; between the neoliberals and the bureaucrats. It was also able to tame the most opposite political parties from the far-right religious wings to the so-called leftist forces. Yet, this monarchy cannot avoid the new waves of the Arab Uprising which will be lead today by youth formations and the teachers union.
By Tamer Khorma
In 2011 the Arab world witnessed a revolutionary process, in which the uprisings sparked under the slogan:” bread, freedom and social justice”. For Jordan in particular the uprisings were not only a result of the main contradiction between the ruling class and the working masses, but it was also influenced by a secondary contradiction within the ruling class itself.
Since the privatization process that started in 1999, the old ruling class (the bureaucrats) felt that their interests are threatened by the new actors (the liberals). Therefore, the so-called “old guardian” managed to spread a kind of nationalist socialist doctrine among the masses. During the “Arab spring” this nationalist discourse was motivating the masses who addressed the quest for social justice.
The supreme power inside the regime sensed the danger that might be developed through this secondary contradiction within the ruling class. Thus, the main forces (the palace and the intelligence agency) managed to make the vast majority of these bureaucrats old guardians of the regime more involved in the new liberal projects and approach. Those who could not manage to adapt were simply marginalized.
As a result, and after ten years of the Arab Uprisings, one can argue that the Jordanian ruling class managed to solve their own secondary conflict in order to face the expected new revolutionary waves on a solid ground of unification.
On the contrary (unfortunately) the working-class actors (represented by the independent trade unions which had been established during the revolutionary first wave of 2011) still suffering a deep split in its leadership. Moreover, through the last decade, it became almost corrupted.
The so-called leftist political parties are not in a better position. The Jordanian communist party, an Al Wihda party (Branch of the Palestinian organization PFLP), and HASHD (Branch of DFLP) participated in the last parliamentarian elections (Nov- 2020) with their allies in the “Leftists and Nationalists political parties” (Including the Baathists), while the Jordanian government offered financial aid for this participation, in order to form a “parliament” which will be a mere decoration of the almost absolute oligarchy. The irony is all these parties didn’t manage to win one single parliamentarian seat!
“The Muslim Brotherhood” also are still suffering the splits that were resulted because of the regime plots, and their internal contradictions at the same time. Moreover, they have lost their credibility among the masses since the developments of the first years of the “Arab Spring”.
However, a new popular massive force had a great influence on the masses during the last years. I.e. the teachers’ trade union which the Jordanian government recently decided to dissolve. In addition to this union, there are new youth formations established by the unemployed. These formations along with the teacher unions and the most principled actors of the workers unions are still active, with a great influence on the masses, despite the fact of the absence of any centralized body as a leadership.
Jordanian masses will definitely be influenced by the recent developments of the new Arab Uprisings waves. Yet there is no political force that is able to lead any expected spontaneous revolts (except teachers union and some workers unions’ activists). Yet, the masses’ movement is no longer predictable.